Question

Probability of a 10 years flood to occur at least once in the next 4 years is:
1. 25%
2. 35%
3. 50%
4. 65%

Answer 1

Correct Answer - Option 2 : 35%

Probability corresponding to 10 year return period is

\({\rm{P}} = \frac{1}{{10}} = 0.1\)

The probability of flood occurring at least once in 4 year sis

=1 – (1 – P)⁴ = 1 – 0.9⁴ = 0.3439 ≈ 35%