Question

Pessimistic time and optimistic time of completion of an activity are given as 10 days and 4 days respectively, the variance of the activity will be 

1. 1
2. 6
3. 12
4. 18

Answer 1

Correct Answer - Option 1 : 1

Concept:

Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is probabilistic in nature and is based upon three-time estimates to complete an activity.

Optimistic Time (to): It is the minimum time that will be taken to complete an activity if everything goes according to the plan.

Pessimistic Time (tp): It is the maximum time that will be taken to complete an activity when everything goes against the plan.

Most likely time (tm): It is the time required to complete a project when an activity is executed under normal conditions.

Average or most expected time is given by \({t_E} = \left( {\frac{{{t_p}\; + \;4{t_m}\; + {t_o}}}{6}} \right)\)

The variance gives the measure of uncertainty of activity completion. The variance of the activity is given by 

Variance, \(V = {\left( {\frac{{{t_p} - {t_0}}}{6}} \right)^2}\)

Standard duration, \(\sigma = \sqrt {variance} \)

Calculation:

Given:

t_p = 10 days, t_o = 4 days

\({\rm{V}} = {\left( {\frac{{{{\rm{t}}_{\rm{p}}} - {{\rm{t}}_{\rm{o}}}}}{6}} \right)^2} = {\left( {\frac{{10 - 4}}{6}} \right)^2} = 1\)

The variance of the activity is 1.